Maryland Lt. Governor Polling Well for Senate Run

BALTIMORE - It isn't clear if Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is running for Senate next year. But if he does, a new poll suggests he could be a formidable candidate.

In a matchup against Steele, Rep. Benjamin Cardin would fare better than former NAACP head Kweisi Mfume and Rep. Chris Van Hollen, edging Steele by 4 points. Against the other two Democrats, Steele was in a statistical tie in the telephone poll conducted April 11-13 by Potomac Survey Research for The (Baltimore) Sun.

"He's a political force to be reckoned with," Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research, said of Steele. "You're looking at him against the most-known Democratic leaders, and he's still going toe-to-toe against them at this point."

If the Democratic primary were held now, the poll shows Mfume would have a narrow lead over Cardin and a large edge over Van Hollen.

Mfume is the only major candidate who has declared for the opening created by Democrat Paul Sarbanes' decision not to seek another term. But Cardin, whose district straddles the Baltimore city-Baltimore County line, and Van Hollen, of Montgomery County, have made clear their interest.

Steele spokeswoman Reagan Hopper said the lieutenant governor is considering the race seriously but hasn't made a decision.

The poll sampled 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. Questions about the Democratic primary for Senate are based on a smaller sample and have a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Unlike Mfume and Van Hollen, Cardin has a strong base of support in the suburban Baltimore communities that were key to Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich's victory and make up the heart of Steele's base, the poll shows. Cardin has a 15 point lead in the poll against Steele in Baltimore County, a voter-rich jurisdiction where the lieutenant governor trounces the other Democratic candidates. Cardin also is competitive in the Steele-friendly jurisdictions of Anne Arundel and Howard counties, parts of which he also represents in Congress.

Mfume, who polled at 32 percent in the primary matchup compared to 26 percent for Cardin and 16 percent for Van Hollen, has a strong base in the state's two majority black jurisdictions, Prince George's County and Baltimore. Mfume is black, while Cardin and Van Hollen are white.

Although he has been out of public office for nearly a decade, Mfume's years in Congress, time as head of the nation's most prominent civil rights organization and former career as a television host make his name as well recognized statewide as Steele's.

Although Steele is the first black person to hold statewide elected office in Maryland and the most prominent black Republican in the state, his base of support is the same as that of Ehrlich and other members of his party who have run statewide. Steele does well in Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Howard counties and in rural parts of the state, while faring more poorly in the city of Baltimore and the Washington suburbs, including his native Prince George's County.

He generally fares no better with black voters than does Ehrlich. In a race against Mfume, the former NAACP head would beat Steele among black voters by 66 points, the poll shows. Cardin would beat Steele among blacks by 41 points.

Of the three Democrats who have expressed the strongest interest in the race, the poll shows Van Hollen with the most difficult path to a seat in the U.S. Senate. He is the least-known of the three, and the poll shows he has little support outside of the Washington suburbs. In a matchup with Steele, he does much worse than the other Democrats among black voters and in the city of Baltimore, factors that would make it hard for him to win statewide.

(Copyright 2005 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)