Hospitals, jails brace for Jan. 20 chaos

Wide-eyed crowd estimates of 4 million people or more packing the National Mall and downtown streets for Barack Obama's inauguration could overwhelm regional hospitals and jails, according to experts. And even the more modest prediction of 2 million revelers would still prove problematic in case of an emergency.

Health officials say hospitals in the Washington region are expecting to see up to 60,000 patients over the four-day inaugural festivities -- roughly double the number of patients they would normally treat. But that projection doesn't take into account a possible catastrophe or an unexpected outbreak.

"If the question is 'Is there a large amount of surge capability built in to hospitals?' The answer is no," said Dr. Eric Glasser, a physician at Georgetown University Hospital and president of the D.C. chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians. "Can we make it work for a short period of time? Yes."

Emergency rooms close to the Capitol will take the surge in patients with life-threatening emergencies like heart attacks, premature births and appendicitis, but officials are still working out details of a plan to ensure mobility of ambulances, which will be hampered by large crowds and closed roads.

Even Baltimore hospitals "are expecting a surge of patients," Michael Schwartzberg, spokesman for the Greater Baltimore Medical Center, said. Hospitals will be ready for everything from sprained ankles to the possibility of an outbreak of the norovirus. The nasty bug responsible for severe stomach and intestinal problems travels quickly in crowds and has recently shown up at big events in North Carolina and Minnesota.

Washington's already busy jails also will be under special stress. On a typical day, more than 1,900 of the 2,164 available spots in D.C. corrections facilities are filled. If even a small fraction of the Obama celebrants run afoul of the law, it could push jails beyond their limits.

This year a 12-hour racetrack event in Sebring, Fla., saw 68 arrests out of 170,000 people. In D.C., the crowds will likely be multiplied at least tenfold. And with bars and nightclubs open until 4 a.m. and protesters expected to descend on the city, officials are worried about handling the surge.

"The biggest mistake anyone is making is encouraging record-breaking crowds to come to Washington," said Paul Wertheimer, principal consultant at Los Angeles-based Crowd Management Strategies.

"They're pushing the envelope too much," he said. "They can't manage the kinds of crowds they are saying might occur."

In 1999, the Woodstock music festival had about 250,000 people, Wertheimer said, with 2,000 toilets and 2,800 police and unarmed guards. Inaugural planners announced Thursday that for potentially 2 million people along the National Mall, there will be about 5,000 toilets and 2,300 police and National Guardsmen.

"And people who think that happy crowds are problem-free crowds don't understand what dangers are and how they develop," Wertheimer said, explaining that most assassinations have occurred among happy crowds, and that happy crowds don't deter terrorists.

Georgetown's Glasser said area hospitals have made dramatic improvements in emergency management since 9/11, including far more efficient systems for communicating between hospitals about availability.

Officials at the D.C. Department of Heath, lead agency for coordinating emergency medical plans during the inauguration, declined numerous requests for comment. But a spokeswoman insisted they were hard at work crafting an appropriate plan.

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